The Trump administration had a long week, but you wouldn’t know that if you looked at President Donald Trump’s approval ratings.
Paul Manafort was found guilty on eight counts related to his work in Ukraine after his business overseas became part of Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian collusion in the 2016 election.
Meanwhile, Michael Cohen admitted guilt in tax evasion and campaign finance violations related to payments to Stormy Daniels.
Data from polls conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal found the president’s approval rating to be rock solid, sitting around 44 percent. Hart Research Associates found an approval rating of 46 percent. Any change within the approval ratings landed in the margin of error.
Pollster Bill McInturff told NBC that the president’s approval rating is “remarkably stable.” His sentiments were echoed by his colleague Peter Hart, who said this weeks news “represents a fools gold opportunity rather than a silver bullet solution” for those hoping for Trump’s demise. – READ MORE
[divider][/divider]First of all, it is possible that a lot of this news isn’t quite as horrific for Trump as it may first appear, or that it could have been. Manafort could have easily been convicted on all counts. A Cohen trial with actual public testimony from Pecker and Weisselberg, along with these salacious details having time to be fully absorbed, would have been far more politically dangerous to Trump than a super-quick plea deal that wasn’t even the dominant story of the hour it happened.
I am also not convinced, as many other very wise (but possibly compromised by “confirmation bias”) commentators are that the Pecker and Weisselbeg plea deals are as huge as a lot of people are hoping they are. If their immunity was limited, and they each “flipped” on just Cohen and not on Trump, then this may all be much ado about very little (AMI releasing the ex-Trump Tower worker from his NDA may be the best evidence that Pecker really has “flipped” on Trump).
Regardless, it is extremely important to remember that, because Trump is president, this is almost entirely about politics. Facts and the law simply have almost nothing to do with how long Trump will remain in the office.
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So, with all of this in mind, here is a scenario which became significantly more likely because of this week’s events:
Democrats take the House in November. They are then forced to impeach Trump. The Senate totally rejects the impeachment as if it is illegitimate. Trump, seeing that the presidency is his greatest protection against legal ramifications, and not wanting to be a one-term “impeached” president, is then forced to run for reelection. Democrats, blinded by rage at Trump, end up nominating an unelectable candidate who plays right into Trump’s hands and he wins reelection. – READ MORE
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