Goldman Sachs Poll Finds Nearly Universal Agreement: Trump Will Win Reelection

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The investment firm Goldman Sachs conducted a poll of its clients and found nearly universal agreement that President Trump will win reelection in 2020, with 87% of respondents bullish about Trump’s chances. The poll was conducted this week among attendees of its Global Strategy Conference in London. An average of 160 responses were elicited for each question, according to Business Insider, which noted, “The bank published its results in a research note Thursday.”

Business Insider noted, “Goldman’s U.S. strategists haven’t predicted who will win the election but have warned that if one party holds the House and the Senate and Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are rolled back, corporate earnings per share could drop by 7% next year — a sharp deviation from the strategists’ baseline estimate of a 5% rise.”

Respondents exuded confidence that a recession in the United States would not occur during 2020, with only 5% of them thinking such a situation would eventuate. 35% of respondents said a recession would hit in 2021, with 38% expecting one in 2022. Goldman’s economists thought there was less than one chance in five that a recession would hit in 2020. Over two-thirds of respondents thought interest rates would not rise this year; only 4% disagreed.

The prognosis for Trump’s reelection has changed significantly in the last nine months; last April, Goldman Sachs economists thought Trump would win but it would be a “close call,” as CNBC reported. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, Jan Hatzius, noted that incumbent presidents usually had a “built-in advantage” of 5 to 6 percentage points in the popular vote, adding, “The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him.” – read more

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