Democrats have been solidly in the lead in generic polls that measure which party, Democrat or Republican, people say they’re going to vote for on November 6. But like Silver, those polls are often wrong. And the double-digit margin has suddenly closed as Election Day nears, with Democrats holding just a 3 or 4 point lead with less than two weeks to go.
The Associated Press, as liberal a news outlet as you’ll find out there, is now getting worried.
“In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all,” the AP writes.
Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats’ narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.
“It’s always been an inside straight, and it still is,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats’ outlook in the Senate, where they need to pick up two seats while holding on to several others in Republican-leaning states to seize the majority. “If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot.” – READ MORE