A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the “Primary Model,” an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
The Primary Model, which Norpoth introduced in 1996, predicts that Trump will win the 2020 election by a wider margin than in 2016. The model, which was one of the few prognosticators that foretold a Trump win in 2016, expects to see Trump claim 362 electoral votes in the 2020 election, much higher than the 304 he won when he ran against Hillary Clinton.
The two elections that the Primary Model got wrong in the past 108 years were John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when he won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote.
The Primary Model calculates a candidate’s chance of winning elections based on performance in early primaries. – READ MORE
Listen to the insightful Thomas Paine Podcast Below --