The Islamic State’s declared capital of Raqqa, Syria fell to US-backed forces this week, yet intelligence officials in the UK are warning that the Islamist terrorist group is nevertheless”operating at a scale and pace we’ve not seen before ,” according to the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency MI5.
Global security research organization The Soufan Center notes that while the threat from terrorist operations directly linked to ISIS remains high, attacks inspired by ISIS, Al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups (but that are not directly linked to any single organization) are in fact more frequent. They also pose a greater threat to investigators because they are often harder to detect before they happen.
It is unclear whether the fall of Raqqa will lead to an increase in such attacks, but Professor Robert Pape, who heads the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism at the University of Chicago, says it is wise for the MI5 to be taking a precautionary stance rather than a reactive one, because terror groups and individuals inspired by them intentionally make predicting attacks difficult.
“It is simply the case that the treat that we face is not a threat that is going to be timed in a convenient way for our expectations of the threat, within like a week or two,” Pape said. “It’s possible there could be an event in the next day or two, but far more likely would be a month or two or six months when we’re busy worrying about the World Cup or something.” – READ MORE