Russia expelled American diplomats and seized two government compounds Friday, marking the end of a six-month effort to better relations with the U.S. and ultimately relieve itself of heavy U.S. sanctions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made the express decision in December not to retaliate against the U.S. government for seizing two of its diplomatic compounds and expelling its diplomats. The move came in the waning days of the Obama administration in retaliation for Russia’s attempts to meddle in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
Putin’s decision was hailed as a “masterstroke” of political genius by managing editor the Moscow Oliver Carrol. “Putin is going out of his way to not take Obama seriously,” Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, who spent decades in the C.I.A. tracking Russia while Putin was rising in the K.G.B., told The New York Times. He continued that Putin “is making a good-will gesture, presumably with the hope and expectation that Donald Trump will respond in kind.”
Trump responded positively to Putin’s decision at the time calling it “very smart” and stoked hopes that it would usher in a new era of U.S.-Russian relations. Putin’s decision not to retaliate was not accompanied by any broader change in Russia’s international relations posture. Russia continued to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the ongoing war in Syria, separatists in eastern Ukraine, meddled in French elections, and took a generally hostile posture towards the West.
Putin’s hostile posture towards the West was coupled with growing domestic concern that President Donald Trump did not accept the conclusion of four U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia meddled in the 2016 presidential election. Some Republican lawmakers grew concerned that the Trump administration would lift sanctions on Russia before it changed its international posture prompting the passage of sweeping restrictive sanctions.
The sanctions passed Thursday with a veto-proof majority and largely tie the hands of President Donald Trump in any attempt to unilaterally change U.S. sanctions. Trump is required to inform Congress of any attempted changes in sanctions towards Russia and lawmakers must then approve the action. Trump’s hands are all but tied on the main bargaining chip with Russia unless the country makes a significant departure in its foreign policy, which is unlikely.
Putin angrily responded to the passage of the sanctions by expelling dozens of U.S. diplomats and seizing embassy property elsewhere in Russia. Russia also pledged to expel more diplomats if reciprocal action was taken against Russian diplomats posted in the U.S.
Russia’s expulsion of U.S. diplomats are symbolic failure of both president’s ability to better relations and represent a backfire of Putin’s attempt to curry relations with the Trump administration without making any broader changes in his international behavior. The expulsion also represents the failure of the Trump administration to fundamentally alter the U.S.-Russia relationship.
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