The New York Federal Reserve’s tool for forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) hit its highest point ever on Friday, pointing to a fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.93 percent.
The number is so high that the New York Fed’s “Nowcasting Report” had to be rescaled to allow for such a high reading. Prior to the most recent quarter, the Nowcast has never before predicted GDP above 3.2 percent and rarely ever above 3 percent.
The Nowcast uses the most recent economic figures to try to get a real-time reading of economic output. It is updated weekly. Last week’s number was pushed up by good news about employment, inventories, and new home sales. Low inflation was a drag on the number.
The message from the New York Fed is simple: the economy is booming.
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