Michael Levitt, a Stanford biophysicist who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, has made a bold statement that the end of COVID-19 pandemic could be near and has cited China’s curve flattening to support his hypothesis, reported the Los Angeles Times.
Levitt is now predicting a curve flattening in infections could be around the corner for the US as strict social distancing measures are being implemented across major metro areas.
“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
Levitt accurately forecasted the deceleration in confirmed cases and deaths in early February in China. He said the initial infection rate in China’s Hubei province was 30% per day, but on February 7, something changed:
“The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China would improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Levitt reviewed data from 78 countries that reported more than 50 new confirmed cases of the virus per day and said he notices deceleration in many of these countries. He said he’s not focused on overall cases or deaths but rather on growth rates:
“Numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth.”
He said in South Korea, confirmed cases are still being reported daily, though, in recent weeks, new cases per day have inched below 200, suggesting the outbreak is slowing. – READ MORE
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