President Donald Trump will skate to a 2020 landslide if the booming economy remains on fire next year. That’s the consensus on Wall Street and according to several different election-prediction models.
Despite the impeachment and the nonstop negative media coverage of his presidency, Trump is galvanizing support in his base and is winning over independent voters on the strength of his sizzling economy.
Mark Zandi is the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a global financial-research group. He says President Trump will easily win reelection, according to three different economic models that Moody’s used to gauge the 2020 race.
The Moody’s prediction model has been accurate since 1980 — missing only once in its four-decade history. That was in 2016, when it wrongly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the Electoral College.
“The election is Trump’s to lose,” Zandi told Bloomberg. “Trump wins if the economy and his approval rating are about the same a year from now as today, and turnout is typical.”
Zandi warned that if the economy tanks or the turnout among Democrats surges unexpectedly, then Trump could lose. However, most economists say there is little chance of a near-term recession. Moreover, the stock market is on fire, and unemployment is at record lows.
Furthermore, political pundits have noted that there is a dismal lack of voter enthusiasm for the current crop of Democratic presidential candidates, so a massive spike in voter turnout is unlikely.
In fact, three different Moody’s Analytics prediction models (the Pocketbook Model, the Stock Market Model, and the Unemployment Model) project that Trump will easily surpass his 2016 electoral college landslide against Hillary, when he won by 304-227.
The three prediction models show President Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout.
You need a total of 270 votes to win. – READ MORE