According to one model that has been historically accurate, President Trump appears to be on his way to to an easy victory.
Moody’s Analytics uses three different economic models to predict the outcome of political races: “how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment,” CNBC reports. “The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.”
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s about turnout.”
Under the model on how people feel about their own financial situations, Trump wins 351 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 187, based on average turnout.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report says. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.” – READ MORE