espite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a “91 percent” chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
Norpoth’s model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races. – READ MORE
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