‘Polls might not be capable of predicting elections’: How everyone blew it on Trump’s huge upset
On October 18, Sam Wang thought it was over. So much so that he promised — on Twitter, for the world to see — that he’d eat a bug if Donald Trump earned more than 240 electoral votes.
On November 12, he was eating a bug on live television.
Wang, a top election forecaster and professor at Princeton University, had given Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton a 98% to 99% chance of winning in the days leading up to the election. Of course, it didn’t quite end up that way.
“To state the obvious, this is not random sampling error because it was shared across all pollsters in the same direction. This is some kind of large systematic error, far larger than typically occurs in a presidential election year,” Wang said.
For the second-consecutive election cycle, the polling and prognostication industry is reckoning with how it got it wrong — and why we’re talking about a President-elect Donald Trump when virtually all available data pointed to President-elect Hillary Clinton. – READ MORE