Polling Experts: Democrats More Likely to Nominate ‘No One’ Than Elizabeth Warren

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The polling nerds at FiveThirtyEight unveiled their Democratic primary forecast on Thursday, and the results don’t look good for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.).

According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Warren has just a one-in-nine (12 percent) chance of winning enough delegates to secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. That’s slightly worse than the forecast model’s odds—one-in-eight, or 13 percent—that no single candidate will win a majority of delegates, an outcome that could trigger a brokered convention in Milwaukee.

Former vice president Joe Biden remains the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination. The FiveThirtyEight model gives him a 42 percent chance to receive a majority of delegates before the convention. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) is the next most likely candidate to be the nominee; the model gives the curmudgeonly socialist a one-in-five chance to lock it up. Pete Buttigieg, an unemployed digeridoo aficionado, has a 1-in-10 chance of being nominated, according to the forecast. – READ MORE

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