A former Obama administration official predicts that President Donald Trump will win the 2020 election.
In a New York Times op-ed, Steven Rattner discussed projection models that show potential results of the election. According to Rattner, Trump’s biggest factor — the economy — is what could ultimately decide the election.
“The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections,” said Rattner. “At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind.”
He pointed to a model created by Yale professor Ray Fair, claiming that a combination of gross domestic product, inflation, and incumbency were the three factors that could determine an election. This project worked extremely well for projecting former President Barack Obama’s election wins and has projected Trump to win by 56% of the popular vote. – READ MORE