NBC News reports that Republican early voters are “outpacing” Democrats in key states like “Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas,” and the difference is significant. In most states mentioned, at least 10% more Republicans have voted early than Democrats.
NBC’s data analytics center did not parse out whether the “early votes” were in-person or by absentee ballot. In-person early voting generally favors Democrats, largely because most “early voting” sites are located in major cities with large populations, where demand to vote is high and lines can get long on Election Day. Absentee ballots — particularly those from older Americans and military personnel stationed away from their home city — generally favor Republicans.
But as NBC News points out, the numbers look good for Republicans — or, at least, they look tough for Democrats, who had hoped for a “blue wave,” ushering in Democratic control of both houses of Congress. Republican enthusiasm is higher than expected, perhaps due in part to Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings, and its forcing Democrats to recalibrate their electoral expectations.
“Key Senate races are underway in seven of those eight states and will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the chamber,” NBC News reports. “The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in next month’s midterm elections.” – READ MORE