Democrats ought to worry about the midterm elections

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The collapse of Democrats’ popularity on the much-ballyhooed generic ballot foreshadows tough midterm elections for them in November.

Until this week, pundits nearly everywhere favored Democrats to win – and for good reason. Historically, midterm election victories have been afforded to the party that does not control the White House. That’s a natural result of the checks and balances established by our Founding Fathers.

Generic ballot polling is generally thought to be the best predictor of the mood of the electorate during a midterm season. Such polls usually ask the question: “If the election were held today, would you vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress?”

The latest responses are very troubling for Democrats.

New polling shows that Democrats have lost their recent 15-point lead over Republicans, dropping to only a two-point lead for a critical election they had hoped to paint as a referendum on President Trump and writ large, Republicans.

However, historically speaking, the news is more daunting for Democrats. Compared to where they stood in the 2014 midterm elections, Democrats are actually faring worse at this point than they were then. – READ MORE

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After a tremulous first year for the Trump administration, many in the press have been predicting a “blue wave” in November. Various polls have shown a deep blue polling preference in many swing districts over the past month. However, after Trump’s State of the Union speech, polls for Republicans have begun to stabilize.

This week, an aggregation of polling data from Five Thirty Eight showed a five-point drop in numbers for Democrats nationally since Christmas Day 2017. – READ MORE

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House Democratic lawmakers are reportedly enraged at House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s decision to give an unprecedented eight-hour speech on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday, saying that she hurt many of her Democratic colleagues who are running in 2018:

Some centrist-minded Democrats said Pelosi’s daylong protest could — by calling attention to the failure to provide relief for Dreamers — make it that much harder for vulnerable members to vote for the budget deal. …

“This stunt … had nothing to do with protecting vulnerable members who have to take a difficult vote,” said one moderate lawmaker who asked not to be named. “Working out this deal and then saying she’s not going to vote for it? Come on. She was at the table.” …

All House Democrats are supportive of Dreamers. But several members, particularly centrists, are wary of using the immigration issue as a campaign cudgel, worried it could derail Democrats’ chances of taking back the House.

Another House Democrat told Bloomberg, “Many of our members are furious. We have spent the last three weeks insisting that we don’t want to shut the government down over DACA, and she essentially made the whole thing about it. Virtually everyone trying to win seats outside of California feels she has hurt their chances.” – READ MORE

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