According to Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls, just three weeks out from the midterms, Republicans safely hold 50 Senate seats and Democrats safely hold 44 seats. That means for Democrats to gain the coveted 51-seat majority, they have to win all six of the “toss-up” seats and somehow manage to win over one of the Republicans’ “safe” seats, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
One of the toss-up seats is in Nevada, where Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Dean Heller have been locked in a tight battle for weeks. After Rosen led polls just weeks ago by 4%, momentum has shifted dramatically in the direction of the Republican post-Kavanaugh.
The most recent survey conducted by Emerson Polling (10/10-12) found Heller with a 7-point lead, 48-41, a 9-point swing in one month.
#NEW #NVSen:@DeanHeller (R – Inc) 48% (+7)@RosenforNevada (D) 41%
A 9 point shift towards Heller in a month@EmersonPolling https://t.co/zl6ykd6AnH
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 15, 2018
The Emerson poll follows a pattern of favoring Heller other surveys have indicated, including a NY Times/Siena poll (10/8-10) that found Heller ahead by 2 points (47-45) and an NBC News/Marist poll (9/30-10/3), which found him leading by 2 points (46-44). Just over two weeks ago, CNN found Rosen ahead by 4% (47-43). – READ MORE