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Goldman Predicts USA Will Win 106 Olympic Medals

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Even economists like to have a little summer fun, at least every four years, and as Brazil prepares to unleash its Zika-infested, feces-covered, carnivale of chaos, Goldman Sachs unleashes its quadrennial medal predictions for the Rio games.

Before we (and the Games) begin, a few fun findings from our analysis:

  • Hosting is gold. Our model predicts a 30% boost to Brazil’s n overall medal tally relative to 2012 and a greater than 50% boost to gold alone—bringing their total to a record 22.
  • Just not for the economy. The ~US$10bn spent on infrastructure and logistics is too small to stimulate Brazil’s US$1.8 trillion economy.
  • Or the guy who hosted last time. Expect the UK to lose 10% of its 2012 medal tally at the Rio Games, but still end third in the overall medals table.
  • The key to standing on the podium is sitting down. If you’re the UK, that is. Jokes aside, statistics show the country dominates in rowing, cycling and other seated sports.
  • There’s an indoor/outdoor factor. The UK and Brazil are among the best outdoor sportsmen, while many Asian countries fare better inside.
  • Starting something doesn’t mean you’ll finish well. Greece, the birthplace of the Olympics, has poor sporting performance relative to what its economic indicators suggest it could achieve.
  • It’s not a two-man race. The US and China dominate in total medals, but not in every sport. Whom to watch: Italian fencers, Korean archers and Brazilian volleyballers.

Now without further ado, we bring you our main event: the 2016 Olympics and Economics analysis and medal count predictions for Rio. – READ MORE


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