Goldman Predicts USA Will Win 106 Olympic Medals
Even economists like to have a little summer fun, at least every four years, and as Brazil prepares to unleash its Zika-infested, feces-covered, carnivale of chaos, Goldman Sachs unleashes its quadrennial medal predictions for the Rio games.
Before we (and the Games) begin, a few fun findings from our analysis:
- Hosting is gold. Our model predicts a 30% boost to Brazil’s n overall medal tally relative to 2012 and a greater than 50% boost to gold alone—bringing their total to a record 22.
- Just not for the economy. The ~US$10bn spent on infrastructure and logistics is too small to stimulate Brazil’s US$1.8 trillion economy.
- Or the guy who hosted last time. Expect the UK to lose 10% of its 2012 medal tally at the Rio Games, but still end third in the overall medals table.
- The key to standing on the podium is sitting down. If you’re the UK, that is. Jokes aside, statistics show the country dominates in rowing, cycling and other seated sports.
- There’s an indoor/outdoor factor. The UK and Brazil are among the best outdoor sportsmen, while many Asian countries fare better inside.
- Starting something doesn’t mean you’ll finish well. Greece, the birthplace of the Olympics, has poor sporting performance relative to what its economic indicators suggest it could achieve.
- It’s not a two-man race. The US and China dominate in total medals, but not in every sport. Whom to watch: Italian fencers, Korean archers and Brazilian volleyballers.
Now without further ado, we bring you our main event: the 2016 Olympics and Economics analysis and medal count predictions for Rio. – READ MORE